What Would a 2025 Recession Mean for My Home Renovation?

You don’t need to be glued to your television to hear the rumblings. The grocery store clerk has probably asked you, “Do you think a recession is coming?” Or you’ve likely overheard the table next to you talking about how Trump’s tariffs will impact the housing market. There’s a lot of economic uncertainty swirling around, so it’s no surprise if you’re wondering what this all means for you. We have yet to see how 2025 will unfold, but we want to address the concerns that we’re hearing from many homeowners around Sacramento and the Bay Area.

We’re a small, family-owned renovation company based in Sacramento that specializes in premier home remodels. Our team has been restoring and revitalizing homes all around Northern California for several decades, so we’ve been through the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID recession, and everything else in between. While we’re not financial gurus, we do have experience, expertise, and an insider view of the renovation industry. So let’s go over the economic uncertainty, rising material costs, housing market predictions, and what it all means for your 2025 home renovation plans.

How Recessions Affect Renovations

Let’s be real: talk of a recession in 2025 has many families taking a hard look at their finances. That doesn’t mean you should cancel your renovation plans altogether, but it does mean that your decisions need to be strategic.

During uncertain times like ours, many homeowners tend to shift their focus toward practical, value-driven renovations. Instead of aesthetic-only upgrades, they’re looking to:

• Improve energy efficiency (new windows, HVAC, or insulation)

• Reconfigure existing spaces (bathroom addition or a garage conversion)

• Increase livability (bathroom or kitchen upgrades)

• Add long-term value (square footage additions or ADUs)

These aren’t just lifestyle updates—they’re investments in your everyday comfort, function, and resale value. In the midst of uncertain times, updating your current home with effective ROI projects can make more sense than selling and buying something new.

What Do Trump’s Tariffs Mean for Homeowners?

Recent headlines on tariffs have many Sacramento homeowners wondering how this trade war will affect their renovation plans. While these tariffs are primarily aimed at foreign trade policies, they can ripple through our local economy by potentially raising the cost of building materials—particularly items like lumber, steel, aluminum, and manufactured fixtures.

This might mean higher costs for certain products or delays if materials become harder to source. However, these challenges don’t mean you should automatically pause your plans. In fact, working with a local contractor like HEX can give you an edge:

• We know which materials are most affected by tariffs—and which aren’t

• We work with trusted regional suppliers to avoid long wait times

• We help you find high-quality alternatives that won’t break your budget

Tariffs don’t have to derail your remodel. With strategic planning and smart sourcing, our experienced team at HEX can help you navigate your renovation while still delivering your dream remodel within your budget.

Should You Renovate Now or Wait for 2026?

With economic forecasts predicting a wide range of outcomes, it’s only natural to hesitate and wait for concrete answers. The thing is, the housing market is a notoriously fickle beast that’s infamous for bucking industry predictions and forecasts. We do know that real estate eventually appreciates over time.

With that in mind, waiting might mean higher labor or material costs in 2026, or it could mean competing with more homeowners trying to schedule their projects at the same time. If your home needs updates, and you have the budget, starting a project now may be the best time to do so.

In fact, strategic renovations during uncertain times often yield some of the best returns, especially if you plan to stay in your home for 5–10 more years.

Why Local Experience Matters More Than Ever

Renovating in an unpredictable market means you need a good contractor who understands more than just construction. You need a trustworthy partner who:

• Understands local permitting timelines (especially in areas like East Sacramento or Davis)

• Knows which upgrades appeal to buyers (if you plan to sell in the future)

• Has strong supplier relationships (to avoid long lead times or price spikes)

• Offers transparent pricing and budget planning (that accounts for local conditions)

That’s where HEX comes in. We’ve been serving Northern California for years—and we’ve seen recessions, booms, and everything else you could think of. We help you plan wisely, spend where it matters, and feel confident in every step.

Sacramento’s Trusted Renovation Experts

Economic uncertainty can make decision-making feel risky. We understand that! That’s why we offer free estimates for your projects so you can get a good idea of the investment you’re looking at.

Reach out to us with any questions or concerns; we’d love to give you the answers you’re looking for!

You can also book a feasibility consultation for a flat fee that we’ll reimburse if you move forward with us. During this detailed consultation, we’ll inspect your property, discuss your goals, and give you a thorough and accurate idea of what’s possible—even with shifting market conditions.

Renovating during a volatile year doesn’t have to be scary. With the right team, it can be smart.